
A few posts ago, I mentioned a story in the local Winner, SD regarding the idea that a Walmart Store would move into Winner. That story was followed by another in last weeks paper with a few more details.
Apparently Walmart people have visited the community, looked for land, etc. The story piqued my interest so I did a little discrete asking in the community if I happened to meet anybody who might know anything at all.
So, this is all hearsay.
First thing I heard was that a new Walmart Store would bring in an extra $80,000 a month in city sales tax for Winner, SD. That sounded a bit like the kind of thing the walled city would think about. But, that has some implications for sales expected. Some quick and dirty math suggests this would mean additional sales of $4 million per month or $48,000,000 more sales per year.
Today I heard that there were projections of an additional 300 families per day expected to visit Winner if a Walmart store were built. That means roughly 9000 extra visits per month here. If I did not screw up the math, that total and the sales expected put together require each visiting family spends $467 per visit.
That seems a tad bit optimistic to me since I have visited a few Walmarts several times and haven't yet spent a toal of $467 in several years. But, let's continue with the story of Walmart Sugar Plums Dancing in the heads of Tax Collectors.
You can pull up a census map of SD with a map of counties. Clicking on any one of them pulls up a lot of census information such as total population, total housing units, people per unit, people per square mile, etc.
SD County Census Hotlinked to Data
A quick and dirty check of data there suggests that within an area of likely market for a new Walmart store in South Dakota, including the counties of Tripp, Todd, Gregory, and Mellete, there are 9,298 housing units with a total population of 22,325 or about 2.4 persons per household with that total skewed by the 3.62 persons per housing units in Todd County which also happens to have a 54% Native American population.
So, dig up what you can from these maps and check my rough calculations. If we go a bit further on in this, the propaganda for another retail outlet in Winner in the way of Walmart would have to bring in every existing family unit in the area (neglecting Nebraskans to the south of us) and each would have to spend about $500 ADDITIONAL per month in Winner to generate the kind of additional sales and city sales tax revenue. And without much difficulty, you can see that means $6,000 of extra spending per family per year.
I have heard that some of these projections are based on what is claimed to have happened to Vermillion, SD once a Wal-Mart superstore was located there. What the spin neglects to mention is that a new bridge across the Missouri south of Vermillion has brought in a whole new trade territory for Vermillion, SD.
I just don't think those numbers are at all realistic. I would put this information in the Winner paper, but it has an editorial policy that forbids any letters to the editor which mention any business in Winner, dead or alive, So the only way this information is going to get around here is from this blog.
I don't think the solution to the economic problems of this area can be solved with an additional retail store in the city when not all of them are probably making anybody really, really rich locally with the exception perhaps of farm implement dealers and they won't be particularly impacted by another general retailer in the area.
But, if we assume that a lot of Walmart's sales if they actually came here would really be obtained by stealing customers from existing local businesses, then a Walmart store here would mean that perhaps two hardware stores would be gone, at least one or two quick stop stores, and probably one or both grocery stores would fold up here. And then as happened in other cities, we would see a gradual increase in local Walmart prices.
The area sure as hell does not want to extend Walmart any tax breaks or incentives for coming here for any reason at all. Such tax subsidies penalize all local taxpayers.
Before Winner has any more retail stores, it needs businesses that bring dollars in here from outside the community and leave most of those dollars here instead of exporting most of them to Chicago or Arkansas, or California, or China...wherever. The local hospital does that to an extent, local doctors help. The school brings in state dollars. Agricultural programs and social security bring in federal dollars.
This suggests a small factory with only a few employees that turned some low cost inputs into a high value product mostly sold outside of Winner or a data processing outfit bringing in pay from out of the area would do more to stimulate the local area even if they might not generate city sales taxes. It seems that the city sales taxes here are at cross purposes with actual development of the kind that would keep more of the school graduates here in the area or provide opportunities for them to return here after college.
Well, that is probably more of this than you want to read; but it seems to me some kind of a reality check is in order in the development propaganda ministry in Winner, SD.
***Stay tuned even if you own Walmart stock..or especially if you do---Doug Wiken
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